James Mansell - Personal Site

Something to think about....

Saw these at one of my clients, it certainly got me thinking. One of the problems with my job is bridging the gap between others and our own expectations. The key here would seem to be to bridge the gap between your own expectations and your actions.

When Obama when to Berlin to cheering crowds, many thought he echoed John F Kennedy and his “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech. However, for historical perspective perhaps looking to Kennedy’s successor Johnson might be more informative.

Obama seems to be heading for what may be a landslide, and whilst it will not equal that of Johnson in 1964 who won 62% of the popular vote, it is going to be large.

Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act, that he correctly said would loose the south for the Democrats for a generation. What the US economic woes and the fact that Obama is not a black candidate from the Civil Rights Era (he is half white, and his father was not actually American) have given is an opportunity for Obama to connect with white working class Americans in the way that Bill Clinton did. Obama has genuinely been the post-racial candidate because he is too young to truly remember that era. Americans who vote for Obama in spite of him being black because of economic worries, will have then voted for a black President, and because he is not Jesse Jackson, they will realise that there is more to being a black president than being black. Perhaps Johnson’s generation will have passed.

In the same way, Obama like Johnson may be in a position to enact genuine change in American, like Johnson’s “Great Society” programme, that changed the political landscape. The challenges that Medicare and Medicaid face (both started in 1965) are well documented and Obama will have to deal with them giving him an opportunity for genuine reform. If he has a united government in Congress that might be possible (however, loosing the mid-terms might derail his programme).

Johnson is always remembered as the president who escalated the war in Vietnam, but he was not the president who started the war (that was Kennedy) Johnson had to decide what to do next. Obama’s position in Afghanistan is similar (although in no way so serious) and in Iraq the improving security situation may make an exit more reasonable.

Obama’s Vietnam will be the economy. He was not the president that got the US into this mess, however, he is the one who can make it worse. Thoughtful advice, retaining free trade and remembering the lessons of history are going to be important. If he handles it well then perhaps he will be remembered as Johnson would have been without Vietnam.

Who would want to be writing a weekly news magazine at the moment? It’s bad enough for the newspapers you wake up every morning and another twist or turn has occurred. So how does the Economist respond? Well in the only way it can, giving the historical perspective. History doesn’t change, and all you have to do is identify the relevant issues and write stuff well.

The Economist’s piece of the history of modern finance is excellent in giving this perspective. It should be good reading for anyone trying to get their head round the present financial situation.