Surely the key thing as Greece is finding out is that you will have to cut when your creditors turn off the tap. The debate that assumes that cutting is in the hands of the government is to some degree artificial. If we are to convince our creditors that we are going to go on a diet, like going on a diet we can't say it will start tomorrow. I fear we have no choice but to start now.

http://www.ifs.org.uk/bns/bn09.pdf

Germany Leaves the Euro

At one level this seems the most attractive option because the German Mark of equivalent could be allowed to appreciate, and there would unlikely to be a run on the dollar. Because Germany runs a current account surplus, in simple trade terms there is an excess demand of Marks (due to the surplus) would cause Mark to rise, reducing the current account surplus etc.

However, I think there are two reasons this won't happen, firstly, the Germans who have seen their real incomes fall (to account for increasing currency) are unlikely to allow the other European countries to devalue their currencies in order to allow them to re-balance output the easy way.

Secondly, the Euro is a reserve currency block, many central banks have been holding Euros as  response in the decline of the purchasing power of the US Dollar as the US Government has been running a large current account deficit. The act of Germany leaving the Euro would lead the a mass run from the Euro into the Mark, Sterling and the Dollar, something that would not benefit Germany.

Greece Leaves the Euro

Ireland has been toying with this for about a year. However, for Greece to leave the Euro would be equally difficult to achieve in the short term. If they simply decided to start paying debt, workers, benefits etc. in Drachma, however, Greek's including their creditors would be unlikely to be pleased by this, probably causing them to off-load Greek Debt, leading to spiraling inflation (as the purchasing power of Drachma declined). Thus the Greek government would achieve the cuts in real expenditure through a painful devaluation and inflation.

So either way Greeks see a fall in their real incomes.

Conclusion

Therefore, on the basis of the above, the only option is for the Euro zone to carry on, Germany will have to accept that it will have to help Greece out in return for having purchased German goods for some years. These fiscal transfers will be unpopular in Germany and the costs unpopular in Greece. However, both countries benefit from being part of a reserve currency group, that will allow them if they can get through this crisis to continue to borrow cheaply. It's the only option, and probably Europe has the political will to do it.

Saw these at one of my clients, it certainly got me thinking. One of the problems with my job is bridging the gap between others and our own expectations. The key here would seem to be to bridge the gap between your own expectations and your actions.

Obama seems to be heading for what may be a landslide, and whilst it will not equal that of Johnson in 1964 who won 62% of the popular vote, it is going to be large.

Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act, that he correctly said would loose the south for the Democrats for a generation. What the US economic woes and the fact that Obama is not a black candidate from the Civil Rights Era (he is half white, and his father was not actually American) have given is an opportunity for Obama to connect with white working class Americans in the way that Bill Clinton did. Obama has genuinely been the post-racial candidate because he is too young to truly remember that era. Americans who vote for Obama in spite of him being black because of economic worries, will have then voted for a black President, and because he is not Jesse Jackson, they will realise that there is more to being a black president than being black. Perhaps Johnson's generation will have passed.

In the same way, Obama like Johnson may be in a position to enact genuine change in American, like Johnson's “Great Society” programme, that changed the political landscape. The challenges that Medicare and Medicaid face (both started in 1965) are well documented and Obama will have to deal with them giving him an opportunity for genuine reform. If he has a united government in Congress that might be possible (however, loosing the mid-terms might derail his programme).

Johnson is always remembered as the president who escalated the war in Vietnam, but he was not the president who started the war (that was Kennedy) Johnson had to decide what to do next. Obama's position in Afghanistan is similar (although in no way so serious) and in Iraq the improving security situation may make an exit more reasonable.

Obama's Vietnam will be the economy. He was not the president that got the US into this mess, however, he is the one who can make it worse. Thoughtful advice, retaining free trade and remembering the lessons of history are going to be important. If he handles it well then perhaps he will be remembered as Johnson would have been without Vietnam.

The Economist's piece of the history of modern finance is excellent in giving this perspective. It should be good reading for anyone trying to get their head round the present financial situation.

1906 Liberal 6%
1945 Labour 12%
1979 Conservative 5%
1997 Labour 10%

Because of the large number of Liberal Democrat votes at the last election, it is difficult to calculate the national swing needed to overturn Labour's majority. However, a swing of over 8% would appear to be needed . This would be greater than they had achieved even in 1979. The large landslides of the century also have tended to be to the left rather than the right, even further showing the mountain the needs to be climbed.

Well without the incumbancy factor and a majority under 2,100, that's going to be a seat lost that'll be a win for the Tories I suspect.  There was a strong swing from Labour to the Tories in 2005 of 4.2%. Gordon Brown won't be thanking her!

I've been working on a client, where they have been having major problems with one supplier issuing invoices for services not rendered. On investigation, it seems that the selling teams are paid a bonus based on invoices and not based on actual payments. Hence they are raising invoices etc, and hoping that my client will just pay them!

It shows the importance of making the person getting the bonus for sales to be responsible for cash collection. They are often in the best place to achieve it (particularly where Accounts Receivable has been out-soured) and it also helps ensure this kind of thing does not happen.

Well perhaps we have seen some of this in the last few days, but what also has been seen is the Democratic party's fear of the untested nature of Obama, what he has most to thank for his lead is actually John McCain. Many Democrats feared that McCain would get core Republican support in a fight against a Clinton but not in one against Obama. Now I think many Democrats are worried that Obama's inexperience might also leave him vulnerable against McCain  as well.

Fundamentally, the Democrats cannot decide between these two candidates because, they are not sure which is the lesser risk. They are ahead in the opinion polls for the General Election in November, however, there is still time for that lead to slip. When you are ahead you tend to be cautious, the trouble is the Democrats aren't sure on the safe bet.

"In 1960 John Kennedy pleaded with Americans to treat his Catholicism as irrelevant; now a born-again Christian sits in the White House and his most likely Democrat replacement wants voters to know she prays. An Islamist party rules once-secular Turkey; Hindu nationalists may return to power in India's next election; ever more children in Israel and Palestine are attending religious schools that tell them that God granted them the whole Holy Land. "

and is here to stay both in the personal and the political field:

"Atheists and agnostics hate the fact, but these days religion is an inescapable part of politics. Although it is not the state's business “to make windows into men's souls”, it is part of the government's job to prevent grievances from stirring into bloodshed, and fanatics from guiding policy. But it isn't easy. Catholics did not get back into Parliament for 224 years after the Gunpowder Plot. Unless politicians learn to take account of religious feelings and to draw a firm line between church and state, the new wars of religion may prove as intractable. "

However, it's solution to draw the line between Church and State may be a little difficulyt to achieve as it points out. I wonder is Rowan Williams comments about the creation of Moral Communities might be a way forward. It is important to have engagement between Church and State, but this engagement must not become set inn biogtry. Instead, allowing the creation of moral and also religious communities withiin a democratic state that engage and debate with one-anohter retains something of the character or the moral and religious state without the danger of a new 16th and 17th century war or reigion.

In any rate a very good set of articles and well worth reading.

See the letter here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1026e5f2-7d
13-11dc-aee2-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Alfred Nobel's will says the prize should be awarded to: "the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses".

I'm not really sure if Al Gore and the IPCC fulfill that criteria.

Therefore, what is a useful piece ot tax simplification has got to the government being attacked by the CBI and the GMB!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7017682.stm

Perhaps a little bit unfair of George Osborne. It does really make him look rather menacing.

"We're not necessarily in the endgame but to paraphrase Churchill, it's the beginning of the end. " - Ref .

Well Churchill's actual statement, referring to El Alameinin was:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." - Ref .

This is what the Iraqi people are facing now, not the beginning of the end, but the start of the end of the beginning. They are facing the time when Coalition forces have left and they are left to deal with the next phase which could be the most dangerous and bloody yet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/
graphics/2007/09/10/calex10.gif

The physicist Richard Feynman once said "If it can't be reduced it to freshman level. That means we don't really understand it.” Something that is too true of IT.

What many people don't understand is that only if they know they have control of their car (i.e. their brakes work), would people dream of allowing their car to accelerate. So it is with organisations, only when an organisation knows that it can control its speed and direction will it take the risks necessary to reach its goal in as quick a time as possible by going putting it's foot on the accelerator.

This needs to be the attitude taken to internal controls within an organisation. They are not an activity that stops the company from going where it wants to go, they give management control, so that they can slow down when they need to, and thus allow them accelerate when it is safe to.

Equally, when a car tries to accelerate, you do not throw the brakes out in order to make the car go faster, instead you know how to release the breaks.

However, those working in internal controls in an organisation face a real challenge, in order to act as an effective control on an organisation, they cannot be just a permanent break, or the car will never accelerate and reach its destination. Instead they must function how we are taught to drive a car, breaking early and smoothly..

This involves all the key skills of driving: effective training, learning from experience, reading the road ahead and not just where you are, and not being distracted. Those designing, implementing and operating controls in an organisation, would do well to consider during their working day, would I drive like this on the way home?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0BPnnvI47Q .

Enjoy!

Much was made of the body language and the different comments at the time, Bush having recently met the West German Chancellor.  The situation here is reversed. Brown has little to gain in helping Bush out and Bush very much needs Brown. The Chancellor should avoid grand-standing and realise that he has an opportunity to make headway in Washington. The UK is listened to, he must make himself heard.

Well it's just plain daft, the London Mayor has significant powers, and is virutally unopposed as the London Assembly as a check on his power is very weak. The Conservative Party is doing well in London, it sould have the confidence to put up a serious candidate who can point out Ken Livingstone's flaw not a celebrity to make a mockery of the process and by the way ensure Livingstone's re-election.

I have been offered a post as a Non-Resident Tutor at St. John's College, Durham. I am very much looking forward to it. It sounds like fun!

http://www.dur.ac.uk/st-johns.college/

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/games/bloxorz

Michael Portillo continues his Tory pessimism with his article in the Times today, continuing his argument that the Tory party (which would not accept his leadership), could not achieve government because it is simply too indisaplined. He fears that Cameron has lost his will to modernise and that the party will loose all its gains as they turn on themselves.

It is interesting that Portillo was rejected as Tory leader, and that he was part of John Major's cabinet that could not be described as united. So perhaps we might have a bit of sour grapes, however, I do think that he has part of a point. However, as David Davis points out, Cameron was elected by the party. He needs to ride that mandate to see out his doubters.

http://www.campaign-for-learning.org.uk/cfl/WorkplaceLearning/lawday/index.asp

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6633979.stm

If so it's another fantastic find in the Middle East which has been the site of some truely amazing archeological finds. It is a shame that security considerations are detracting many from visiting such an interesting and important region.

http://www.comics.com/comics/dilbert/archive/images/dilbert2073317070508.gif .

Essentially he is arguing that George III and George Bush both have the same kinds of flaws that led them to failure in America's War of Independence and fighting the insurgency in Iraq.

"Like King George and his advisers, Mr Bush and his lieutenants misunderstood the nature of the problem facing them in Iraq and underestimated its scale. Both imperial Britain and modern America failed to commit enough troops early on. Nor could they resolve the dilemmas of counter-insurgency: how to wage military action without alienating the local population; and how to isolate the insurgents.

He compares Britain's former mastery of the seas with America's mastery of the air and George Washington's harrying tactics with ambushes of American supply convoys in Iraq. He also finds similarities between Washington's loss of New York in 1776 and Saddam Hussein's loss of Baghdad. He casts Iran in France's 18th-century role as the vital ally of the insurgents. "

A thought provoking thesis, and certainly one that bares closing investigation. However, I won't be reading the book, as the Economist review is less than complementary. However, it is a thought that I might turn to in the future.

Follow up : I see Michael Rose is also plugging his book on Start the Week on 30th April - Have a look here .

I think it makes a few good points:

• mentoring isn't just for newbies
• mentoring is about being a sounding board not giving advice
• being a mentors is a good way for people to experience career development even after they have "peaked.

All in all a very worthwhile contribution.

BBC News is reporting that either Michael Meacher or John McDonnell will stand for the leadership, this would seem to guarentee 45 nominations that they would need in order to ensure a contest.

As regards John Reid or a similar challenger. I just can't see it, there are not 45 MPs that would want to take on Gordon Brown and also think such a contest would be a good thing.

The next debate is the exact date for Tony Blair's announcement of his departure. I think before the 3rd of May is a possibility. How about the 1st? It would be 10 years since his election. Also it would look better than leaving after a major defeat at the local elections.

'Transitional Relief' exemption that applied to files created prior to the Data Protection Act 1998 (DPA) will come to an end in six months' time.

Organisations with large amounts of paper based records will struggle to comply with simple requests from members of the public who want to know who has access to their personal data, whether it is accurate, and gain confirmation that it is stored securely.

Interestingly, many companies seem to not have noticed this risk, increasing the danger of loss of reputation and possible fines.

Data Protection is one of those areas that are growing in importance. Companies have to pay attention to it, because the reputational damage can be very bad. Hopefully warnings from companies such as KPMG will help raise awareness.

The primary objective of management in any organisation is to identify and manage risks. What the GMTV situation revealed is that there was a systematic failure to identify and manage a potentially large risk. In engaging in a contract with an external agency there was a significant risk to their reputation. Customers would inherently identify this service provider with GMTV; however, had GMTV considered the nature and risks with this relationship?

This was a quote from Drive Assist. They claim this would save carbon. Does anyone have any idea how much carbon this would save in not producing so much paper. However, there is the namufacture of smartphones and sat nav and the power that they use to consider, so I can't believe it is a huge saving. However, it is an interesting question, is better use of technology the answer to our carbon problems?

Well, it's certainly another good front cover...

It is refering to a new IBM tool called Lotus Connections that is to be released soon "that lets company employees post detailed profiles of themselves, team up on projects and share bookmarks. One manufacturer testing the software is using it to put inexperienced members of its customer-services team in touch with the right engineers.".

Certainly looks interesting. I think it also links to the idea of producing innovation hot-spots, see my entry "Hotspots — the way to manufacture genius in the workplace ". If you can create interactions that would not normally occur in the physical world then you create more opportunity for innovative interactions.

Who would have thought it... Paisley and Adams sit down together to work in government together.

The proof will obviously be in the eating but I get a distrinct sense that all sides think the war is over.

An interesting question, worth some thought. I can imagine many bloggers would fear the idea of censorship and campaign against it but should there be rules?

Well I suppose one answer is don't read it… well we'll have to see!

He is arguing that actually it was Labour and Conservative governments of the 1970s that were captured by the Civil Service, Yes Minister style and thus led the county to ruin, and that it is the triumph of statism that is so dangerous. I think there is a harking back to the "forces of conservatism" arguments that Tony Blair raised all those years ago.

The search for the heir the the Third Way in which ever way it is framed is still a fight that has to be fought in the Labour Party. Notice the Peter Mandleson has come out of the wood-work. There may yet be an alliance of those who fear and those who hate Gordon Brown that may yet prevent his triumphal path.

Could there even be a Roy Jenkins style SDP attack by frightened Labour MPs (hint hint Peter)? Perhaps after the introduction of Alternative Vote PR following a hung parliament at the next election.

Don't count your chickens yet Gordon!

Durham are hosting what looks to be a very interesting conference entitled "Darwin, Science and Belief". Looks like a very good collection of speakers, including Dennis Alexander whose  book Rebuilding the Matrix on Science and Faith in the 21st Century is a good and informative read.

It's on the 19th April 2007 hosted by the Anthropology department. I'm not sure if I can attend, but I would certainly encourage others to.

http://www.dur.ac.uk/ias/events/thematic/darwin_science_and_belief/

An interesting article that I read on the train yesterday. raising the point that organisations are actually about people and you need in your organisation to create hot-spots that allow people to interact. It's about creating a co-operative culture in which people work together and not an independent culture in which they work apart.

I think a good example is a nuclear fission chain reaction. By just splitting one atom this can create a chain reaction as neutrons spread out and cause more fission. You need to have systems in place in your organisation to ensure that you can support and sustain this reaction and ensure there aren't too many carbon rods in your organisation that soak up those innovating neutrons!

You can see his reports here: here.

Interesting to try and spot some names that might be of interest in the future. Then you can talk knowledgably about their time in Bangladesh!

The answer the economist comes up with is there is no answer. It's an interesting article, however, what it forgets is Christianity. True Christianity has reached across the globe, but it continues to be something that has it's historical roots since the 4th century in Europe.

Europe should not shrink from it's Christian heritage, it should be proud of it, it is it's contribution to the world.

Chaos ruled OK in the classroom
as bravely the teacher walked in
the hooligans ignored him
his voice was lost in the din

"The theme for today is violence
and homework shall be set
I'm going to teach you a lesson
one you'll never forget"

He picked on a boy who was shouting
and throttled him then and there
then garroted the girl behind him
(the one with the grotty hair)

Whatever you think of it, it is a good name and a good web site. Take a look here: http://www.the2020vision.co.uk/ .

http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/index.php/
blog/individual/joke_of_the_day_662/